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Analysis of factors affecting internal migration in Iran using multiscale geographically weighted regression

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Abstract

Internal migration is a pivotal driver of population dynamics and socio-economic transformation. This study investigates spatial patterns of population movements across Iranian counties, exploring the influence of environmental and socio-economic drivers on in-migration and out-migration flows. Methodologically, the research employs Spatial Descriptive Statistics, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) to capture the non-stationary nature of migration drivers. MGWR results reveal that socio-economic factors exert a predominant and consistent influence on in-migration, whereas demographic and environmental stressors, particularly drought and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), significantly predict out-migration with notable spatial variability. These findings underscore that socio-economic pull factors are relatively stable across regions, while environmental push factors exhibit localized effects. From a Spatial Information Science perspective, this study demonstrates the efficacy of multiscale spatial modeling and provides a framework for targeted, location-specific regional planning.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Social and Economic Faculty, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran

    Reza Noubakht

  2. Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Dublin City University (DCU), Dublin, Ireland

    Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi

  3. Department of Migration and Urbanization, National Institute for Population Research (NIPR), Tehran, Iran

    Valiollah Rostamalizadeh

  4. Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Rasoul Sadeghi & Mahmoud Ghazi-Tabatabaie

  5. Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

    Shahin Mohammadi

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  1. Reza Noubakht
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  4. Rasoul Sadeghi
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Correspondence to Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi.

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Appendix

Appendix

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Table 5 Linear regression coefficient estimates and VIF for predictors of in-and out-migration
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Noubakht, R., Rabiei-Dastjerdi, H., Rostamalizadeh, V. et al. Analysis of factors affecting internal migration in Iran using multiscale geographically weighted regression. Spat. Inf. Res. 34, 68 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-026-00723-7

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